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The vaccine industry that will break out in silence

The vaccine industry that will break out in silence

Release time:
2018/06/30
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For many of the disability and fatal diseases, the vaccine is a mature low cost and high benefit prevention therapy, and the major public health benefits are equivalent to saving hundreds of billions of dollars per year for the health system. Until recently, however, vaccine manufacturers had received economic returns that matched the long record of positive public health performance. The vaccine is now the leader of the industry, achieving a high income growth rate, reaching a two digit rate of 10% to 15% per year, and is expected to continue to grow in the next few years, much more than the growth rate of 6% to 7% in the traditional medicine industry.
 
This thriving scene in the vaccine industry has benefited from the wave of innovation in the field of disease prevention and the national health system that attaches great importance to vaccines as the main tool to combat infectious diseases. These factors are causing changes in manufacturers and their products, as well as in the market and major customers. In the era of patent cliffs and product lines, the high success rate of the third phase of the vaccine development and the long life cycle of the product, often far more than the patent validity period, forced the industry to look at the vaccine again. However, companies that hope to benefit from this growth must adapt to rapidly changing markets, including a long period of clinical development, high investment in complex manufacturing platforms, and often politicized prices and solvency structures, which require high emphasis on relations with all external stakeholders.
 
Key growth factors

  There is a significant untapped potential in the vaccine market. Unmet needs still exist because many diseases still have a lower immune rate, or no vaccine is available. Financial analysts expect the market to reach US $39 billion by 2015. WHO predicts that the global market will increase to $100 billion by 2025, and 120 new products will be launched in the next 10 years.

 
A variety of factors are promoting this growth. Our industry experience highlights three factors: awareness of infectious diseases, changes in global solvency and price growth of new vaccines.
 
Awareness of infectious diseases is improving: governments are major customers, playing an important role in purchasing, implementing safety regulations and affecting the spread of vaccines. Over the past 10 years, the government and international organizations have become increasingly concerned about the public's awareness of infectious diseases, and have decided to invest heavily in mass immunization and promotion programs, which have brought opportunities for manufacturers.
 
The global outbreak of vaccine preventable diseases has promoted public awareness. Seasonal influenza outbreaks (such as H1N1 flu) have caused thousands of deaths and caused heavy burden on national health expenditure. The promotion of consciousness has prompted the government to prevent future outbreaks through various plans. These schemes provide funding for the mass immunization programme, which has played a catalytic role in improving vaccine utilization. For example, the WHO is currently supporting governments to carry out an immunization campaign through numerous public immunization programmes, which not only provide funds, but also provide bottom-up infrastructure support, including financial aid to the annual World immunization week.
 
The recent outbreak of the B meningococcal epidemic is a proof of the impact of the epidemic on public awareness and government policy, which has led to cases of meningitis in some university campuses in the United States, and at least one person died. As a result, the CDC and the food and Drug Administration (food and Drug Administration) offer the Bexsero meningitis vaccine of Novartis to a limited population, although the product has not been widely used in the United States. In addition, Bexsero and Pfizer Inc's rLP2086 recently obtained a "breakthrough drug" from the food and drug administration, making these two products eligible for accelerated audit. We expect that the Advisory Committee on Immunization (ACIIP) will recommend the use of Japanese meningococcal vaccine in the near future. This recommendation is expected to prompt the majority of the payment to be paid by the eligible population.
 
Non-profit organizations and non-governmental organizations (such as the Gates foundation, the Clinton health initiative organization, the International Alliance for vaccines and immunization (GAVI)) and many other organizations have increased their impact as intermediaries and / or vaccine proponents in the negotiations on vaccine procurement in the Ministry of health of the developing countries. These organizations have gained more and more charity support. They also provide drugs for emerging and developing markets, enhance the status of immunization in the public health agenda, and help to develop strategies for the coverage, pricing and vaccine promotion of the national immunization program.
 
Further universal and more predictable Pricing: immunization is gaining greater attention on the national health agenda; the government is working with international organizations to improve or expand the coverage of vaccine coverage related to preventive public health interventions. The United States parity medical act 2010 stipulates that all medical insurance schemes must provide recommended vaccines, and that no cash payments or co payments are required for patients, which aims to bring a better coverage for 88 million beneficiaries in 2013.
 
Other mature markets, including Japan, have raised the importance of immunization as the focus of public health. In order to reduce the country's "security gap", the Japanese Ministry of health and labor (MHLW) has invested heavily in vaccine manufacturing and research and development operations at Takeda, ANNs Tailai, the first three Communist Corporation and the MITSUBISHI field to promote the immunization of universal communicable diseases. Japan's Ministry of health and labor has provided a generous reward for vaccine producers, funded the public awareness promotion program, and by 2015 plans to incorporate HPV, Hib, pneumococcus, chickenpox, mumps and hepatitis B immunization into the national immunization program. The Japanese vaccine market grew from 28% to a compound annual growth rate from 2006 to 2011.
The use of vaccines is also mainly driven by the improvement of vaccine coverage and distribution in emerging markets (see chart below). Argentina now has one of the most extensive national immunization programs in Latin America, which provides free vaccines and has expanded the number of compulsory vaccines from 6 to 16 over the last 10 years. In addition, the Ministry of health of Argentina plans to increase the proportion of the insured from 80% to 95%, and has developed a plan to expand the vaccine distribution system to ensure universal immunization. Brazil currently ranks first among Latin American countries in terms of immunization protection, and its national immunization program contains 26 vaccines. In China, regional influenza prevention programs have been formulated in selected provinces and municipalities, and a pediatric vaccine has been selected to reduce the economic burden of uninsured patients.
 
The importance of immunity in emerging markets has been further reflected in the enhancement of the level of immune activity in local medium-sized manufacturers and government laboratories. China's Beijing Kexin biology company, the Brazil Institute for the bloom, the bio vaccine company in South Africa, the Birmex of Mexico and the India government serum Research Institute are developing new vaccines to invest in more advanced manufacturing technology and improve the use of vaccine products. Brazil has taken technology transfer as a key part of its national vaccine policy, so the Ministry of health of Brazil has agreed to buy an acute otitis media vaccine Synflorix worth $2 billion 200 million in the GlaxoSmithKline Co to obtain the technology gradually, thus making the vaccine independently after the expiration of the 10 year contract. Sanofi signed a technology transfer agreement with the Birmex of Mexico and the Brazil Institute of technology. Many medium-sized institutes have also signed buying agreements with international organizations, such as the International Alliance for vaccines and immunization, the Bill and Melinda Gates foundation, and the health application technology organization (PATH).

  The increase in the price level reflects the enhancement of innovation: part of the growth of the vaccine industry comes from the higher prices charged by the newly emerging vaccine products based on the value they offer (see below). Wyeth launched Prevnar-7 in 2000, which is more expensive than the sum of most other children's vaccines, while still showing high cost. The Merck Co's human papillomavirus vaccine Gardasil was priced at nearly $400 when it was launched in 2006. With the increase in the value of six additional vaccines, the Pfizer Inc launched Prevnar-13, which costs about $513 a course.

Even in the competitive vaccine category, innovation has achieved price differentials, and Senauer Faye Basudeb's Fluzone HD is an example of the strongest unmet demand in the flu vaccine market. At the time of the deadline, Fluzone HD showed that the ability to protect influenza is not better than the common flu vaccine, but the vaccine showed a higher immune response in clinical trials. The private price of Fluzone HD is two times the price of a variety of standard doses of flu products. AstraZeneca FluMist has recently won the CDC vaccine recommendation for children. The CDC says the incidence of influenza is significantly lower in children aged 2 to 8 years if they are vaccinated with a nasal vaccine. FluMist is also selling at high prices in the market.
In addition to the above drivers, we also found that successful lifecycle management strategy also promoted the growth of the industry. Two of the largest vaccine products in the vaccine industry (Gardasil and Prevnar) are excellent examples. For example, Gardasil has achieved a two fold increase in the size of the vaccinated population after the approval of the indications for male anal cancer, genital warts and precancerous lesions. In January 2013, the Pfizer Inc Prevnar also got the food and Drug Administration's license for people over 50 years old, a decision that made Wall Street analysts predict that the annual sales of the product would increase from $4 billion to $5 billion. The current market leading vaccine has and will continue to provide a stable source of growth, and manufacturers want to use R & D, manufacturing and marketing capabilities to increase annual investment in promotional spending, post market monitoring research and extension of indications.

  Industry growth has led to massive mergers and Acquisitions: many large manufacturers have begun to use vaccines to drive sustained growth and brand revenue. In 2010, there were 195 vaccine cooperation transactions in the industry, including the acquisition of Johnson by the company, which reached $2 billion 300 million for the introduction of the child vaccine, local vaccine and travel vaccine assets of the medium size vaccine manufacturer to Johnson.

Other famous mergers and acquisitions, including the recent acquisition of Novartis's non flu vaccine assets by the GlaxoSmithKline Co with $5 billion 250 million in cash, in exchange for the transfer of GlaxoSmithKline Co tumor franchise and the development of a unique consumer medical service. The acquisition brought GlaxoSmithKline a travel vaccine resource, including a prospective vaccine for meningitis. Senauer Faye Basudeb acquired the camp in 2008, and West Nile and dengue travel vaccine resources expanded the flu and custom multivalent composition assets of the world's second largest vaccine manufacturer. In 2007, AstraZeneca bought the medical immunization company for $15 billion 600 million, and the Synagis and FluMist vaccine, acquired through the acquisition, made AstraZeneca the sixth largest manufacturer of vaccines in the world. At the beginning of 2012, Wu Tian (see border) set up a new vaccine business unit, and MITSUBISHI field side acquired the Canada Company Medicago, thus obtaining the latter's innovative technology for producing vaccine particles from tobacco leaves.
The future of the vaccine industry
The next generation of vaccine development depends on the platform strategy, which is based on genomics, reverse vaccinations, high throughput DNA sequencing, new plant and insect based expression and production systems, and new and more effective vaccine adjuvant. These developments are likely to rapidly produce new, optimal cost saving vaccine targets, which are highly successful in clinical development programs. New candidate vaccines with potential for development (such as meningococcus, GBS, methicillin resistant Staphylococcus aureus, pneumococcus and pathogenic Escherichia coli) have been developed. These new platforms not only enhance the prospects for major infectious diseases such as AIDS, tuberculosis, dengue fever and malaria, but also lay the foundation for the development of therapeutic vaccines for other emerging diseases, including allergies, autoimmune disorders and cancer.